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Happy Friday!

Author Archives: Stefanie Miller

Odds of NAFTA Withdrawal Executive Order 75% and Trending Up – Odds of Actual Withdrawal 25%

The Takeaway: We think investors underappreciate the likelihood that President Trump issues an executive order (EO) triggering a U.S. withdrawal from NAFTA. We put odds of this event at 75%, most likely at some point in the mid-November / early-December time frame. This view is driven significantly by events of late last week that saw…

Canadian Lumber Trade Case is Trending Toward a Protectionist Policy Outcome

The Takeaway: The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) held a hearing yesterday in its antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigation into imports of softwood lumber from Canada. Nearly all impacted companies came under pressure (including RFP, CFP:CN, WFT:CN, PHM, TOL, LEN, DHI, and NVR) when the Department of Commerce International Trade Administration (ITA) –…

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