Happy Friday!

Happy Friday!

Despite All the Vegetables, Some Very Sweet Treats

The Takeaway: We view yesterday as incrementally positive for tax reform’s prospects and therefore reposition our 75% odds as now trending up that both chambers of Congress can pass a measure by the end of 1Q2018. We were encouraged by the following developments in areas we’ve been watching: 1) reaction by House Ways and Means…

CMS Unlikely to Cut 2019 Home Health Payments

The Takeaway: When CMS finalizes the 2018 payment rule for home health agencies this month, we believe it is highly unlikely that the agency will finalize proposed cuts for 2019. Congress’s robust, public opposition to finalizing the Home Health Groupings Model (HHGM) proposal makes it far more likely—we place odds at 80 percent—that CMS will…

Risk Corridor Payment Outlook

The Takeaway: We anticipate key developments in the status of risk corridor payments in the next few months. First, CMS is expected to publish final totals for all three years of the program as early as this month. Second, in early 2018, we expect the Federal Appeals Court to issue a decision on whether the…

Hurricanes & PR Revised Budget Likely Mean Deeper Bond Losses

The Takeaway: In early October, the PROMESA Financial Oversight and Management Board (FOMB) published a letter to Congressional leaders following the devastation in Puerto Rico (PR) due to Hurricanes Irma and Maria. FOMB stated that the hurricanes “have fundamentally changed Puerto Rico’s reality” and are expected to cause “lower revenues, higher costs, and delayed or…

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