Happy Friday!

Happy Friday!

Despite All the Vegetables, Some Very Sweet Treats

The Takeaway: We view yesterday as incrementally positive for tax reform’s prospects and therefore reposition our 75% odds as now trending up that both chambers of Congress can pass a measure by the end of 1Q2018. We were encouraged by the following developments in areas we’ve been watching: 1) reaction by House Ways and Means…

Odds of NAFTA Withdrawal Executive Order 75% and Trending Up – Odds of Actual Withdrawal 25%

The Takeaway: We think investors underappreciate the likelihood that President Trump issues an executive order (EO) triggering a U.S. withdrawal from NAFTA. We put odds of this event at 75%, most likely at some point in the mid-November / early-December time frame. This view is driven significantly by events of late last week that saw…

Canadian Lumber Trade Case is Trending Toward a Protectionist Policy Outcome

The Takeaway: The U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) held a hearing yesterday in its antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigation into imports of softwood lumber from Canada. Nearly all impacted companies came under pressure (including RFP, CFP:CN, WFT:CN, PHM, TOL, LEN, DHI, and NVR) when the Department of Commerce International Trade Administration (ITA) –…

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